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Soulcare United Kingdom

How the UK’s coronavirus epidemic compares to other countries

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Models of the epidemic give very different estimates of its potential final death toll, from tens of thousands to one published on Friday that projected a figure of below 7,000.

So how to make sense of the projections, and what do the patterns of coronavirus deaths in other countries tell us about what could come next in the UK?

How do things look in the UK?

Confirmed cases in the UK are doubling every three or four days. Deaths are growing faster, doubling every two or three days.

 111448514 analysis 1 uk trends linear 26mar nc

This data doesn't show all cases, just the confirmed ones. That's because testing is mainly only carried out on those ill enough to be hospitalised, not those with mild symptoms, and so the true number of cases is higher.

Experts in the field would expect those wider cases to also follow a similar pattern: doubling every few days. That's because viruses multiply and so do the numbers of people infected by them. They keep multiplying at a constant rate until they run out of people to infect or measures to slow the spread take effect.

It's hard to see this constant multiplication from the chart above, but easier to see if you plot the same figures on a different scale.

On the scale shown below, a straight line means "doubling at a constant speed". We have added dotted guide lines on the chart to show what might be expected if cases or deaths were doubling every two or three days.

2

In reality, doubling speeds often fluctuate until an epidemic reaches a big enough number, say 100 cases. Since that point, confirmed cases in the UK have doubled every 3.3 days.

Thankfully, there haven't been enough deaths in the UK yet for us to draw a settled trend from 100, so our trend line starts from 10.

At the moment, deaths are growing faster than confirmed cases, doubling every 2.5 days.

As of 27 March, the UK has seen 759 deaths. If the speed of doubling continued, we would expect to see another 750 deaths in the following three days and 1,500 in the 2.5 days after that. But is that speed faster or slower in the UK than in other countries?

Book a Remote Healing Session or Healing Retreat with Medical Intuitive Healer Omar Botha

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 111410425 distancing nc

Apples starve out viruses from the intestinal tract and liver. As the pectin from an apple moves through your gut, it collects and rids your body of viruses and other microbes such as bacteria, yeast, and mold. Choose red-skinned apples for the most nutrients.

More information how to boost the immune system and foods to avoid that feeds virusses via Healer Omar Botha

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Ferries and holidays to France and Spain

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1974 timetable The company, originally known as Armement Bretagne-Angleterre-Irelande, or B.A.I. for short, was officially born on a bleak New Year's Day in 1973, with French, British and Breton flags flying and a choir singing carols. With Britain's entry into the Common Market in 1973, Gourvennec saw his chance to end the geographical isolation of Brittany.

Realising the quickest route to this new market would be across the western Channel to Plymouth, he contacted several large shipping companies to see if they would be interested in operating the route. These efforts were to no avail so he and his fellow farmers purchased their own freighter and named it 'Kerisnel', after a small Breton village famous for its cauliflowers. The Breton farming groups who founded the company remain its main shareholders to this day.

In March we chartered another LNG-powered ship from Stena RoRo, a third E-Flexer.

Visit Brittany Ferries »

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